Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
