Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
