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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still